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Industrial economy of reality and challenges
source : author : time:2015年6月27日

China's industrial economy showed signs of stabilising, but corporate investment is still not active

Related survey statistics show that experienced difficulties in 2014, the industry economy stabilised in the first quarter of this year, the industry climate index of 50, is from the critical point. The investigation of the constructed industry climate Index contains the current operating conditions, the change of the expected operating conditions and investment opportunity three child Index, Index of the constructor with the United States "Consumer confidence Index" (Consumer Sentiment Index).

About enterprise management status, 26.6% answered "good", 69.6% answered "medium", 3.8% answered "poor". Diffusion index of 61, more than 50 vicissitudes tipping point. Enterprise expected operating flat, diffusion index of 53. Investment is the most weak index.

When asked about whether the current is a good time to investment in fixed assets, only 6% of firms think "yes", 34% answered "not", the rest as the "general", the corresponding diffusion index of 36, 50 is far lower than the threshold point.

Accordingly, in the first quarter of enterprises with investment in fixed assets ratio is only 11%, of which only 2% of the enterprise investment scale is higher than 3% of its total assets, the investment level can be roughly offset depreciation). Look from the trend, over the past four quarters enterprise operating conditions on the mend, but especially expansionary investment, investment in the continued to decline.

There is a lot of industry difference in the enterprise management: the industry climate index up to 75, min. 7. Of the top five industries, respectively, for water supply (climate index for 75), medical (69), instruments and meters (66), the electric heat (65), and cultural and educational supplies (62). Operating coal industry is the most worrying (7), oil processing (33), leather (34), agricultural and sideline products (37) and textiles (38). In the industry of the most worrying, the coal from the start has been made in the second quarter of 2014, oil processing in the fourth quarter of last year.

Operating conditions of regional difference is less than the industry difference, regional industry climate index between 44 to 54. The top five provinces, after distribution is scattered. The top five provinces including heilongjiang (54), tianjin (54), hunan (53), sichuan (53) and hubei (53), five named after (44), gansu province, guizhou (46), (48) in shandong, anhui (48) and hebei (48), including guizhou since the third quarter of 2014 is on the list.

Industrial economy faces two major challenges, insufficient demand and rising costs of financing difficult problem at present is not prominent

Statistics show that industry one of the biggest challenges facing the economy is still a lack of demand, 52% of companies say a lack of orders is an important factor of restricting production. Followed by cost, 16% answered "labor costs", 12% answered "the cost of raw materials. Financing bottleneck is not, only 2% of the enterprise will it as a factor of restricting the production. These findings survey is more uniform in the past few quarters.

Demand side, in the first quarter this year, 39% of companies answer their products in the domestic supply. The situation of the domestic market problem is more serious than the international market. Reflect the diffusion index of insufficient domestic demand for 69, the spread of the international market index of 59, suggests that policies need to intensify efforts to expand domestic demand.

The obvious contradiction between excess capacity, despite the lack of demand, but due to the investment continues to shrink, the severity of the excess capacity ease two, in the third quarter from a year earlier, up to 49% of the enterprise product supply in the second quarter of last year. Excess production capacity of more than 10% of businesses in steady decline over the past year, the proportion fell from 15% in the second quarter of last year to 6% in the first quarter of this year; Excess production capacity of more than 20% of companies fell to 8% from 2%.

Enterprise costs, rising labor costs is industrial economy's second big challenge. The rising cost of contradiction in two, especially in the third quarter of last year, basic relief in the fourth quarter. The first quarter of this year, reflecting the rising cost of unit ratio of companies has increased considerably, rose to 27% from 12% in the fourth quarter, diffusion index for 62.

Over the past four quarters of the price level is smooth, diffusion index between 48 to 51, this means that costs will directly squeezing profit margins. At present, the situation with good investment opportunities, the rising cost of labor increase in the number of enterprises is particularly prominent. If the recovery, cost need to pay close attention to.

Financing, accordingly with weak investment, in the past four quarters only a small number of enterprises in new loans and rate continued to decline, from 24% in the second quarter of last year to 4% in the fourth quarter and first quarter of this year rose slightly to 7%. Among them, the new lending to state-owned enterprises obviously tilt (compared with 11% of new loans).

In new loans in the enterprise, the enterprise think overall easing bank lending attitude, only 8% of companies answer loans difficult attitude. In the absence of new loans in the enterprise, the vast majority of companies (93%) of the answer is no capital requirements. These results are in complete accord with survey in the past few quarters, namely the bottleneck of financing is not at this stage. The conclusion and the central bank loans by financial institutions to statistical report.

In general, financing is not a bottleneck at the present stage of judgment, from industrial economy in low water level running this big background. Investment demand is weak, the enterprise as long as the profit, also depends on the accumulation of retained profits can be run. Due to a serious shortage of demand is the main contradiction, easing of monetary policy to increase liquidity to the pulling effect of industry development co., LTD. The bottleneck of financing is not at this stage, however, does not represent a financial reform is not important, if the lack of financial system efficiency, resource allocation is unreasonable, when the economic recovery, financing is likely to become a bottleneck.

The industry had a lower risk of a hard landing in China, to prevent loosening monetary policy to reduce the negative impact of the excess capacity

Won't cause of a hard landing of the three aspects: first, the enterprise operating conditions gradually improved, diffusion index increased from 55 in the second quarter of last year to this year in the first quarter of 61; Second, the industry economy is one of the biggest challenges facing overcapacity problem, since the fourth quarter of last year; Three is the second largest industry economic challenges of rising costs, especially Labour costs rise, basic relief in the fourth quarter of last year.

At present, the industrial economic problems are structural, short term is not a panacea, so should be working on a long-term policy in two ways: one is to stick to and strengthen policies to expand domestic demand, including increasing the income of residents and reduce household savings by providing more public services, the second is through the upgrade of industry and technology innovation to solve lack of demand and rising costs. Especially it is important to note that monetary easing didn't really promote the development of the industry, will only sustain excess capacity, thus for the long-term development of the industrial economy.

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